Skip to Main content Skip to Navigation
Preprints, Working Papers, ...

Vaccination under pessimistic expectations in clinical trials and immunization campaigns

Abstract : We provide one of the first formalizations of a vaccination campaign in a decisiontheoretic framework. We analyse a model where an ambiguity-averse individual must decide how much effort to invest into prevention in the context of a rampant disease. We study how ambiguity aversion affects the effort and the estimation of the vaccine efficacy in clinical trials and immunization campaigns. We find that the behaviours of individuals participating in a clinical trial differ from individuals not participating. Individuals who are more optimistic toward vaccination participate more in trials. Their behaviours and efforts are also affected. As a result, because vaccine efficacy depends on unobserved behaviours and efforts, the biological effect of the vaccine becomes difficult to evaluate. During the scale-up phase of a vaccination campaign, provided that vaccine efficacy is established, we show that vaccine hesitancy may still be rational.
Document type :
Preprints, Working Papers, ...
Complete list of metadata

https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-03763363
Contributor : Caroline Bauer Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Monday, August 29, 2022 - 2:33:34 PM
Last modification on : Monday, September 5, 2022 - 12:16:08 PM

File

wp_202226_.pdf
Files produced by the author(s)

Identifiers

  • HAL Id : halshs-03763363, version 1

Citation

Johanna Etner, Josselin Thuilliez, Hippolyte d'Albis. Vaccination under pessimistic expectations in clinical trials and immunization campaigns. 2022. ⟨halshs-03763363⟩

Share

Metrics

Record views

963

Files downloads

7751