Atlantic versus Pacific Agreement in Agri-food Sectors: Does the Winner Take it All?

Anne-Célia Disdier (1, 2) , Charlotte Emlinger (3) , Jean Fouré (3)

1 PSE - Paris School of Economics
2 PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques
3 Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales

Trade liberalization of the agri-food sector is a sensitive topic in both Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) discussions. This paper provides an overview of current trade ows and trade barriers. Then, using a general equilibrium model of international trade (the MIRAGE model), it assesses the potential impact of these two agreements on agri-food trade and value added. The results suggest that the US agri-food sectors would gain from both agreements while almost all their partners and third countries would benefit less, and might register losses in some sectors. However, the two agreements are not competing, since all the contracting parties' defensive and offensive interests are complementary. Finally, we show that the Atlantic trade may be impacted by the inclusion of harmonized standards within the Pacific agreement but not by its extension to additional members (e.g. China or India).

Keywords: Mega-trade deals; agri-food; CGE model; Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership; Trans-Pacific Partnership

Domains: Humanities and Social Sciences; Economics and Finance

Anne-Célia Disdier, Charlotte Emlinger, Jean Fouré. Atlantic versus Pacific Agreement in Agri-food Sectors: Does the Winner Take it All?. 2015. ⟨halshs-01190840⟩