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Influenza mortality in French regions after the Hong Kong flu pandemic

Abstract : Background: Influenza mortality has dramatically decreased in France since the 1950s. Annual death rates peaked during two pandemics: the Asian flu (1956–1957) and the Hong Kong flu (1969–1970). Objective: This study’s objective is to evaluate whether the second pandemic created a structural change in the dynamics of influenza mortality in France. Methods: We employ a new database on influenza mortality since 1950 at the subnational level (90 geographic areas) to estimate statistical models to find out whether a structural change happened and to explain the differences in mortality rates across geographic areas. Influenza mortality increased between 1950 and 1969 and decreased from 1970 onward. Conclusions: The Hong Kong flu is identified as the event of a structural break. After the break, geographical differences are less explained by regional characteristics such as income, density, or aging ratio. The Hong Kong flu was found to be associated with a major change in influenza mortality in France. Change in health practices and policies induced a decline in mortality that started in 1970, just after the pandemic. The health benefits are notably important for senior citizens and for the poorest regions. Contribution: We employ a new database on influenza mortality since 1950 at the subnational level (90 geographic areas). Change in health practices and policies induced a decline in mortality that started in 1970, just after the pandemics. The health benefits are notably important for senior citizens and for the poorest regions.
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https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03820032
Contributor : Josselin Thuilliez Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Tuesday, October 25, 2022 - 6:49:45 PM
Last modification on : Thursday, October 27, 2022 - 3:53:17 AM

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Florian Bonnet, Hippolyte d'Albis, Josselin Thuilliez. Influenza mortality in French regions after the Hong Kong flu pandemic. Demographic Research, 2022, 47 (19), pp.545-576. ⟨10.4054/DemRes.2022.47.19⟩. ⟨halshs-03820032⟩

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